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  WEEKLY OUTLOOK: US Trade Conflict and Fear of Inflation Continue to Touch Mind | News | Bit Updates
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WEEKLY OUTLOOK: US Trade Conflict and Fear of Inflation Continue to Touch Mind | News

Monday, March 5th, 2018 | bitcoin updates

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) – Interest rate concerns, political uncertainties such as the election in Italy and now also a looming tariff conflict with the United States: Currently, plenty of topics drive investors worry wrinkles on the forehead. After his repeated drop in price, the Dax (DAX 30) is likely to move in troubled waters in the new week. The fear of a stronger than expected inflation remains market topic number one, said Robert Greil, chief strategist of Merck Finck Privatbankiers.After the announcement of punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum by the US President Donald Trump is preparing for a serious international trade dispute. The EU immediately threatened retaliation, and US neighbor Canada warned against countermeasures. If truly "global tariffs" were to come, it would raise import prices in the US, raising prices for products made from steel and aluminum, such as cars or planes let, said the experts of the Viennese private bank. In particular, tariffs are likely to drive up inflation. Together with the US tax reform, which could drive consumption and thus prices, an "interesting mix" emerges. In the light of interest rate concerns, investors will pay close attention on Thursday to signals from the European Central Bank (ECB) on monetary policy. According to analyst Michael Schubert of Commerzbank, it could possibly refrain from saying that it would increase bond purchases if necessary. This could be seen as a sign of a slightly tighter monetary policy. Interest rate hikes as in the US are on this side of the Atlantic for the time being is not yet debated. Directly to the start of the week but it once the decision of the SPD members to digest a continuation of the Grand Coalition with the CDU / CSU and the elections in Italy. On Sunday it became known that the SPD, with a surprisingly large majority, cleared the way for a new grand coalition. "For the economy and the stock markets, it ultimately matters that Germany has a new and effective government after a 6-month hanging game," commented analyst Thomas Altmann of QC Partners. "Investors are less concerned and insecure" The election in Italy, as expected, did not produce clear results. Euro-critical and right-wing parties are the big winners of the parliamentary elections in Italy – but in all likelihood they can not govern on their own. The five-star protest party and the xenophobic Lega were able to grow properly, according to projections. The center-right alliance around former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was ahead. His conservative Forza Italia was overtaken by the Lega within this alliance. The governing Social Democrats of party leader Matteo Renzi must well take a historic defeat. On the financial markets played on Monday morning, neither the GroKo vote nor the Italian election a major role. The Euro cost just over $ 1.23 on Friday night and the Dax was slightly up in the week after the heavy losses in the week before, about three and a half hours before the start of the new trading week. "The mood is really bad now, But risks are largely priced in, "said Daniel Saurenz of Feingold Research. The Eurozone economy continues to run at full speed, he stressed. Looking at this fundamental background, a recovery in the Dax would be justified. It should not be forgotten, however, that the stock market barometer remains technically beaten at least for the time being. Chart technology has a lot to do with stock market psychology. The slide below the range around 12 300 points should according to the experts of the stock market statistics magazine index radar even skeptics of the "correction mode" convinced. By that they mean a major setback after a long, strong price hike, without jeopardizing the long-term uptrend. The negative sentiment change is clear from the reluctance to buy in this area. For the time being, the support for 11 850 and 11 400 points came into focus. Before that, lasting stabilization seems unlikely. On Friday, the DAX was at just over 11 900 points from the trade and thus only just above the low of August last year. In the medium term, however, experts remain confident. For example, Bank of America analysts Merrill Lynch wrote in a recent study that there have been some signs of a bear market in the USA, ie a prolonged downturn, but it took another two years for this signal strength in past negative phases until the stock market has reached its peak. On the corporate side, there are likely to be some changes in the Dax indices to investors in the new week. For experts, the inclusion of the Internet portal operator Scout24 for the ailing furniture retailer Steinhoff (Steinhoff International) in the MDAX is certain. In addition, the real estate company Aroundtown (Aroundtown SA) is expected to replace sugar producer Südzucker. Also conceivable is a place swap of the SDax company (SDAX) Rocket Internet (Rocket Internet SE) with the Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (pbb), which is currently still in the MDax.Unpleasure, if not completely excluded is a rise of the specialty chemicals company Covestro in the Dax, where he would replace ProSiebenSat.1 (ProSiebenSat1 Media SE). In addition, there should be some changes in the SDax. There is clarity on late Monday evening (5 March). The implementation will take place two weeks later. Otherwise, the reporting season will continue with annual figures such as Deutsche Post (German Post), the gas company Linde and the pharmaceutical company Merck KGaA (Merck). / Mis / jax / stw / he— By Michael Schilling, dpa AFX —


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