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  Statistics Professor simulates: Where does the journey in Germany go? | Bit Updates
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Statistics Professor simulates: Where does the journey in Germany go?

Sunday, October 1st, 2017 | bitcoin updates

    (Picture: pixabay)
             Lack of care, nursing shortage. Problems that concern many, but for which there is hardly any sound regional research. The Trierer statistician want to change this now.


        Statistics is for many a rather dry and boring thing. But these data will be a whole lot of people really sharp: How does the medical deficiency in the Eifel develop in the next decades? What influence does politics have on the nurture in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern or the housing market in Munich in 20 years? The professor of economic and social statistics, Ralf Münnich, wants to give answers. Together with several scientists, he plans a simulation center at the University of Trier, where such developments could be calculated using huge amounts of data.
The special thing about it is that "predictions can be created for the first time, even for regions, by means of scenarios," says Münnich. For so far, there is no model in Germany that is so finely divided into the "microstructures", that is, "really really builds communities of size, population structure and age structure". But if one wanted to imitate, "where do people go, how does it work with supply, how much income is there in the region?" His team wants to do this: "We zoom down."
Data treasure In the simulations, the Trier statisticians can rely on a rich data fundus. In 2011, they examined the statistical methodology for the census survey – and the anonymous index evaluation of the census research work on their computers. "We know, in principle, how heavily houses are inhabited, how many persons live in which community." In addition, there are public data on the geographical distribution of the population plus other surveys. "We can simulate the population quite realistically."
In the second step, millions of data are "broken down" to regions. And certain questions then calculated in dynamic scenarios with simulated response behavior of humans. "Our first simulation on the microstructure has shown that we can model one year in a few seconds."
Construction workAs a project partner in the boat is the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden. What are the Federal Statisticians expecting from the project? "It helps us to really learn," explains the head of the Department of Science Cooperations, Mikrosimulation and new digital data at the Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics, Markus Zwick. Microsimulations are increasingly in demand from politics as a basis for decision-making. Nor are such simulations "a day-to-day business", so it would be useful to develop such a center. It is thought about building a microsimulation center at the Federal Office in the long term.
How many data are on the Trier computer? For the German population this is 82 million per variable and per year. With built-in scenarios, the amount of data goes up quickly, says Münnich. "We are assuming that when the next expansion stage comes, we will have a number of 1000 variables within three years, and then we are beyond terabytes."
Glass ball The interest in the project is very great, he says. "We have already received research from scientists, associations and even communities." Or from the medical chamber and from politics. "Many politicians are not interested in countries, but rather in regions, for example in the question of whether a new care center makes sense in one area or whether the supply of doctors in different rural regions is different."
These questions could only be answered later. "First the research infrastructure has to be." It is also conceived to open these later to other researchers for other contents – possibly also from abroad. "The thing has huge potential."
However, there are always limits when simulating – because not everything can be recorded as a variable as a variable. "If a researcher tells me he could have foreseen exactly one million refugees in Germany, then I laugh tired."
 (dpa) /




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