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  One Year After the US Election: Why Trump Will Stay – Politics | Bit Updates
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One Year After the US Election: Why Trump Will Stay – Politics

Friday, November 3rd, 2017 | bitcoin updates


The twelve months since the sensational outcome of the US presidential election was a lost year for the US. In many ways: dealing with arrivals, experiments with health care, climate and environmental protection, escalation of international conflicts, questioning open world trade. It was also a lost year for the challenge for Germany to find an answer to Donald Trump. Germany acts as if one does not have to take it seriously. The public debate is exhausted by either indulging in it or making fun of it. Or to call his impeachment. It is as if it were an industrial accident and a rapidly passing phenomenon without lasting consequences. So you do not have to take him seriously and develop a long-term strategy for dealing with his America.Donald Trump's presidency may have started as an industrial accident. The combination of the American electoral system and the distribution of votes in the 50 states made Trump president even though Democrat Hillary Clinton scored three million more votes nationwide. The exit came unexpectedly. It is all the more important now not to continue building on false expectations. This man does not disappear so quickly. Trump succeeds, so others will copy him. Trump will stay. In multiple form. First, he remains president. An impeachment or resignation is unlikely. Secondly, his style of distracting from the really crucial issues with "alternative facts" and emotional upheaval – for example, the project of tax reform, the "Joe Average," which brings little to the average citizen, favors large companies and the super-rich, and high public funds Deficits will bring. He succeeds with this strategy, so he will cling to it and others will copy him. Thirdly, it is even conceivable that Trump 2020 will succeed in re-election. The irony is that its prospects even increase as developments occur that its opponents hope for. As a general rule, events that seem harmful to Trump at first glance can create risks and side effects that end up being exploited. Failures do not hurt him

The political debate no longer obeys the rules that many citizens and journalists presuppose unspoken: lies and missteps are punished? Populists who do not deliver what they promised disenchant? One year after the election, Trump did not fulfill a central election pledge. Barack Obama's health care reform was not abolished, the wall on the border with Mexico not built, the effects of globalization not stopped, the party-political blockade not broken. Trump can not even take advantage of the fact that his party, the Republicans, has a majority in both chambers of Congress. There are almost always a few deviants who torpedo a law project. Only in the appointment of conservative judges in the Supreme Court and the appellate courts, he can announce success. Failure does not harm Trump's reputation among his followers but not. They see it as confirmation that Trump is right in his complaint: The establishment of both parties, Democrats and Republicans, prevents the necessary reforms. The difference between falsehood and truth is blurred. The shortness of the news cycle benefits Trump. Hardly any dispute is discussed soberly and systematically. Each new exciter displaces the previous headline. Trump calls for capital punishment for the New York assassin? At once, the interest in the charges against his campaign manager Paul Manafort in the Russia affair drops. In a similar vein, Trump had previously distracted from his defeats in Congress on health reform and in court on "Muslim-Ban" by breaking up a dispute over how to deal with fallen soldiers. If Trump is lying or breaking his law, he does not even seriously defend himself. He neutralizes the allegation by claiming that his opponents are also filthy. His Russia affair was in truth a Clinton affair. His opponents brings that to the white heat. His followers believe him. The difference between truth and lies, between facts and "fake news" blurs. Individual Republicans oppose, it is not a mass movement

The impeachment by Congress is unlikely. Impeachment is a political process, not a criminal trial. The majority of the House of Representatives must vote for the initiation. For the dismissal of the President, a two-thirds majority in the Senate is needed. In both chambers of the congress, the Republicans have the majority. Individual conservatives vote against individual legislative proposals and prevent them. But even if the Republican dissatisfaction with Trump is great, it will not be a withdrawal. The actions of Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake, who made their opposition to Trump public when they decided not to return, show that Republicans who want to be nominated by the base for reelection do not openly oppose the president .Linke dream of impeachment, the middle has other worriesThe left wing of the Democrats wants to make the 2018 congressional election an "impeachment election". Your argument: give us the majority, only then the impeachment becomes possible. Moderate Democrats refuse. Such polarization is counterproductive. For most voters, jobs, taxes, health care and other everyday issues are more important than impeachment. Because of the constituency division, it is questionable whether the Democrats can win the majority in the House of Representatives anyway. Even if it succeeds and they impeach impeachment, the two-thirds majority in the Senate to condemn Trump.Germany should be prepared for Trump remains the full four years in office. And consider how it pursues its national interests in a world where the US no longer automatically advocates Europe's liberal order, free trade, and military security. If it runs stupid, Trump will be re-elected in 2020. If it goes stupid, Trump 2020 can be re-elected. Of the 46 percent of voters who gave him their votes a year ago, he has lost many. In recent surveys, 36 to 39 percent support him. That's not enough if Trump competes as a Republican candidate against a promising Democrat. It's quite possible, of course, that other Republicans, given his weakness, will scent a chance and compete with him in 2020 for the presidential nomination. If the party did not set Trump up again, that would at first sight be a bitter defeat. Paradoxically, it would improve his chances of re-election. He would not be hopeless in a "three way race" against an "establishment" Democratic candidate and an "establishment" Republican candidate, as Trump will portray this as the only anti-establishment hope in 2016 ,

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