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  Euro on the Sunday Opinion: The Underrated India Notice | Bit Updates
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Euro on the Sunday Opinion: The Underrated India Notice

Saturday, October 7th, 2017 | bitcoin updates

by Hiren Dasani, guest guide fr uro on SonntagIndien has this summer the
70th anniversary of its independence. With every decade the socio-economic situation in the country seems to be changing. Electricity generation has doubled over the past five years, wind capacity has quadrupled, and solar capacity has grown tenfold. In 2007, there was only one modern subway system in an Indian city; today there are seven and eight more are built.
The consumer experience has also changed completely. The number of Internet users has increased tenfold to 460 million. This makes India not only the second-largest web market in the world but also the fastest-growing and second-largest national Facebook community.
But the market also faces challenges. Four years ago, India was dismissed as one of the "fragile five" economies: the "taper tantrum" shock in May 2013, that is, the fierce reactions of the bond and stock markets to the Fed's announcement to reduce their bond purchases, hit India Stock market massively.
In addition, a series of prominent corruption scandals brought both public and private investment to a standstill. GDP growth was at its lowest level in ten years, with double-digit inflation. The balance-of-payments balance was very negative, and the budget deficit of the country had reached an untenable level.
India's turnaround in the past four years shows how much a committed, progressive government can achieve. Certain raw material prices also played a role. But courageous reforms, such as the uniform tax on goods and services introduced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, were just as important as tightening infrastructure spending and a monetary policy focus on consumer price inflation. The result is GDP growth of a healthy seven percent, an inflation rate below the four percent target, and current account deficits at 0.5 and 3.5 percent, respectively.
Because of this strong initial situation, we are confident about the future of India. The fast growing Indian middle class plays a key role in this. They will significantly increase the additional expenditure in the next ten years. This holds unprecedented opportunities for industries such as tourism, the electronics and automotive industries. In addition, the Indian IT sector is radically changing. While the area was previously dominated by foreign IT service providers, strong domestic competitors are now emerging on Amazon, Uber, Paypal and Zagat.
Up to eight percent growth in the next ten years
If the Indian government is able to fully exploit its potential – and in particular to facilitate business in the country, expand production capacities and invest in infrastructure and technology – there is every reason to remain optimistic.
Forecasts are generally difficult, but we believe the Indian economy could grow by seven to eight percent even in a normal government in the next ten years. In addition, the central bank has set an inflation target of four percent. Together, this should lead to a nominal GDP growth of around 12% and a corresponding profit growth for companies.
A certain caution is nevertheless always offered: India has developed over the US in the last ten years about 30 per cent worse. India's potential can only be fully realized if the government consistently implements its reform program. In addition, external factors such as a sharp rise in prices or political tensions in other emerging markets could have a negative impact on the Indian economy, despite its strong internal orientation. While we see these risks, we remain optimistic about India. It is important to select those stocks which will benefit most from reforms and economic expansion.

short CV
Hiren DasaniAktien expert at Goldman Sachs
Asset Management
Dasani is Co-Head Emerging Markets Equity, co-portfolio manager of
Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) Emerging-market equity strategies and lead portfolios manager of GSAM's India equity strategies.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management is one of the world's leading asset managers. The company provides institutional and private investors with investment and advisory solutions. Source: Kunstzirkus / pixelio.de, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, szefei / Shutterstock.com


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