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  BTC-Kursanalysis KW04 – The fight for the long-term trend | Bit Updates
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BTC-Kursanalysis KW04 – The fight for the long-term trend

Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 | bitcoin updates

Even though Bitcoin recovered to 7,600 euros after the fall and rose to 10,585.60 euros, the price remains in a downward channel and is currently testing the long-term trend at 8,740 Euro. SummaryThe Bitcoin price dropped this week. After the fall of last week's session, the price did recover short-term, but only tested the resistance of the current downtrend. The most important support is 8,238.92 euros, the most important short-term resistance at 9,881 euros. Last week's bearish view was followed by another dramatic fall in price that broke the first support line but came to a halt before the second. The price was able to rise again in the short term, but did not sustainably overcome the existing downtrend and has been falling again since yesterday. The current behavior, together with the current political developments in the Asian region and the announcement of the German and French regulation of Bitcoin lead to a tense mood in the market: some are looking forward to a purchase opportunity, the others are worried about the course. Both sides look together at the price movements – and they really do not look good. The MACD (second panel from the top) is negative, so is the MACD line (blue) below the signal (orange). The RSI is 37 and is hence bearish. Overall, therefore, the situation is bearish according to price, trend and indicators. The main support equals the 78.6% fib retracement level (in terms of minimum and maximum last week) at 8,238.92 euros. Should this support fall, the next important support after a test of the weekly minimum would be to find the support of the downstream channel, which is currently at 6,159.27 euros. As will be shown, the current support also has a lot to do with the long-term development of Bitcoin. The main resistance is described by the 23.6% fib retracement level at 9,881 euros. A rise above this value would give hope for a broken down channel. Another resistance at 12,240.09 euros would eventually end the flatter downtrend, which has set the price since reaching the all-time high and sustainably pave the way for new price levels. The role of the long-term trendWhy now "the struggle with the long-term trend"? A look at the 1W chart for the value pair BTC / USD, ie the chart with weekly candles, currently reveals a test of the exponential moving average over 20 weeks: For a better visualization of the long-term development, a logarithmic representation was chosen Price movements are compared with several years old price developments. It can be seen that the price has been above the exponential moving average of the last 20 weeks since October 2015 (shown as a thick red line, also referred to as EMA20 for short). The major price corrections in 2017 have tested this EMA20, but have never fallen below it. Since 2012, rates below this exponential moving average have only been counted four times – short-term tests that were one, two weeks below it. The events are shown in the chart. Falling below this EMA20 is seen partly as the beginning of a bear market. Although it can be stated that in three out of four cases no sustained price correction occurred – in the red marked below this mean value, however, this led to a long dry spell for long-term investors. It should also be noted that this EMA has not been undercut for more than two years. Accordingly, investors are eagerly watching the latest price developments to see if Bitcoin can stay above the EMA20 line, or how long Bitcoin is going to "dive". If the price falls below this EMA20, however, calm is the first order of the day : It is not for nothing that events of sustained underrun of this important support line were considered. So, if the course goes down for a few days, that's no reason to panic. It should also be taken into account that Bitcoin has also always performed badly in January of the last few years.Disclaimer: The price estimates shown on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst. BTC ECHOBilder based on data from coinbase.com or bitstamp.com at 10:00 clock on January 23 created Philipp GieseDr. Philipp Giese works as an analyst for BTC-ECHO and specializes in chart analysis and technology. In addition, he is actively involved in the crypto community – both online as a central contact person in the slack channel of BTC-ECHO and offline as a speaker and interviewer, he always maintains an exchange with startups, developers and visionaries. The PhD physicist can draw on many years of professional experience as a project manager and technology consultant. For many years, Philipp has not only been enthusiastic about the technological dimension of cryptocurrencies, but also for the underlying socio-economic vision. Philipp Giese


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